Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, has revealed that the Federal Government is likely to miss the 2025 revenue target by N30 trillion.
Edun said this on Tuesday in Abuja, when he appeared before the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning during an interactive session on the 2026-2028 medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) and fiscal strategy paper (FSP).
The minister said the government projected a revenue of N40.8 trillion for 2025, to fund the year’s budget, but current performance suggests it will likely end at about N10.7 trillion.
Edun blamed the shortfall on weak oil and gas revenues, particularly the Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) and Company Income tax (CIT), as well as poor performance across other revenue lines.
“The current trajectory indicates that federal revenues for the full year will likely end at around N10.7 trillion, compared to the N40.8 trillion projection,” Edun said.
The minister said despite the shortfall, the government met key obligations through “prudent treasury management”.
Edun said salaries, statutory transfers, and domestic and foreign debt servicing were paid through “creative handling” of resources.
He said expenditure plans should be flexible to oil revenues, warning against committing the government to obligations based on fickle projections.
“We must be ambitious, but given the experience of the past two years, spending linked to these revenues must depend on the funds actually coming in,” Edun said.
On his part, Atiku Bagudu, minister of budget and national planning, said the MTEF and FSP were put together through extensive consultations with government agencies and the private sector.
He said for the 2026 budget, the government is projecting oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day, but will adopt a more cautious production assumption of 1.84 million barrels per day for revenue calculations.
James Faleke, chairman of the committee on finance, called for critical analysis to prevent imprudent economic decisions.
